Financial Times žavisi Estija
Atrodo, jog paskutiniu metu Baltijos šalys iš tarptautinės žiniasklaidos gauna nemažai teigiamomis emocijomis nuspalvinto dėmesio: dar visai neseniai The Economist gyrė Lietuvos užmačias pažaboti valstybinio sektoriaus neefektyvumą, o štai vakardienos pati įtakingiausia Financial Times skiltis Lex žarsto pagyras Estijai, besižavėdama jos vidinės devalvacijos efektyvumu. Ir tikrai, pagyrų Estija nusipelnė: buvo nueita ne lengviausiu devalvacijos ir besaikiu skolos didinimo keliu, o nuspręsta gyventi pagal savo išgales. To pasekmė – žymus ekonomikos konkurencingumo padidėjimas, kuris labai greitai išsivertė į einamosios sąskaitos perviršį (einamoji sąskaita prieš krizę buvo stipriai deficitinė) bei prasidėjusį ekonomikos atsigavimą, kuris turėtų būti tvaresnis nei pasiektas tik dirbtiniu vietinės valiutos atpiginimu. Struktūrinės ekonomikos problemos reikalauja ir struktūrinių sprendimų, nors jie dažniausiai būna sunkūs ir skausmingi. Bet juos galima įgyvendinti turint politinę valią. O kad tos valios būtų kokioje nors Graikijoje!
Kadangi Lex skiltis prieinama ne visiems, pateikiu visą jos tekstą:
Once upon a time, a country up the economic creek could devalue its way down again. The rewards – more competitive exports and a bouncing economy – were well worth the cost of more expensive imports. Troubled eurozone members don’t have that option. Their challenge is to achieve the effects of devaluation without altering the exchange rate. Such “internal devaluation” is painful, but the rewards can be quick and striking. Trouble is, you might have to move to Estonia.
The Baltic state has moved from a severe recession – gross domestic product shrank 14 per cent in 2009 – to growth of an expected 1 per cent this year. To get there, nominal wages have shrunk enough to bring unit labour costs down by 7 per cent this year. That has damped domestic demand but boosted exports. A current account deficit of 17 per cent of GDP in 2007 became a surplus of 4.7 per cent last year. Estonia’s rewards: joining the eurozone in January, and a credit rating upgrade from Standard & Poor’s in June.
Estonia has advantages. Its 1.3m people are used to hardship, and debt is only 10 per cent of GDP. Greece’s level is 12 times that.
Still, others are trying similarly tough cures. Ireland has imposed pay and pension cuts averaging 15 per cent for public sector workers, while that group’s wages have fallen 45 per cent in Latvia and 20 per cent in Lithuania since last year, according to S&P. In Spain, entrenched and complex labour practices are under attack, while Greece is trying to take the dysfunctionality out of its tax system.
Estonia’s experience suggests a relatively rapid return to competitiveness is achievable with enough political and social goodwill. It also shows that there is no easy fix. Structural problems ultimately require structural solutions.